Well folks, we’re just a day away from the vice presidential debate. To be perfectly honest, I’m a lot more interested in this veep debate than I was in the first presidential debate. Sarah Palin has been on a see-saw of public opinion since John McCain declared her his running mate about a month ago. Thursday will show us whether his gamble has any chance of paying off.
At the risk of alienating many of the Democratic readers of this blog, I have to agree with the pundits who called the first debate in favor of John McCain. I do this reluctantly, given my distaste over the tremendous arrogance his campaign displayed by declaring him the winner before the debate even happened. But I have to call it like I see it. Barack Obama started the debate off strong, scoring some early hits on McCain by tying him with President Bush and the current economy. Nevertheless, near the end of the debate McCain launched a brutal assault against Obama with the assertion that the latter lacked the strength and experience to guide U.S. foreign policy. By failing to respond forcefully to these accusations, and appearing weak and timid, Obama reinforced the very perceptions McCain was seeking to instill in the minds of the American people. Ultimately, victory in these debates isn’t so much about who gets the facts right, but who creates the right perception of the facts.
Speaking of perception, it’s interesting to look back in time at the debates between Al Gore and George W. Bush in 2000. Al Gore criticized George Bush’s proposed economic policy, stating that it would create huge budget deficits. Bush responded with a wink-and-a-smile by accusing Gore of using “fuzzy math”. This rather unscientific rebuttal appealed to many Americans, and Bush effectively dodged Gore’s attack. Despite the fact that Gore’s predictions have been famously vindicated, Bush’s victory shows that “We the People” are suckers for a great punch-line.
While perception played to McCain in the first debate, it could come back to bite him with a vengeance in the V.P. debate. The importance of this debate could easily overshadow the first presidential debate, and the remaining presidential debates to follow. Many have noted the tremendous pressure on Sarah Palin given the simple truth that John McCain would be the oldest president in U.S. history. Those evaluating Palin correctly point out that she could easily wind up being president herself, and that she merits a higher level of scrutiny than what is normally given to a V.P. candidate.
I would argue that the pressure on Palin goes beyond concerns that many have about McCain’s age and health. I think Palin’s performance will also be a direct reflection on McCain’s judgment - more so than any other V.P. candidate in recent history. This unique circumstance stems from the conditions under which Palin was selected as McCain’s running mate. Generally speaking, presidential candidates choose their running mates from a list of obvious suspects. The media has plenty of time to give us the skinny on each potential selection. When the choice is finally made America is interested, but hardly surprised.
Not so with Palin. She came out of nowhere. Without so much as a hint that she could be a serious contender for the #2 spot on the Republican ticket her selection sent shockwaves throughout the political arena. By straying from the “safe” list of candidates, McCain immediately took hold of the national consciousness. America is rightly asking whether Palin’s selection was the result of careful (albeit secret) consideration on the part of John McCain, or a political stunt designed to steal some of the celebrity spotlight (as well as disaffected Hillary supporters) from Barack Obama.
Opinions are mixed. Independents and political moderates have been put on something of a roller coaster when it comes to Sarah Palin. Personally, when I first heard the announcement my reaction was, “Sarah who?” The shocking choice smacked of a desperate cry for attention on the part John McCain. Nevertheless, her speech during the Republican convention presented us with a strong, confident V.P. candidate whose charisma might just carry the Arizona senator to the White House. I began to think McCain’s decision wasn’t so strange after all - until Palin began giving interviews. Her inability to effectively answer basic foreign and domestic policy questions gave rise to serious doubts about her ability to intelligently discuss the most pressing issues of our day without the help of a teleprompter. Attempts by the McCain campaign to shelter Palin from the media haven’t helped much either.
Whether McCain’s decision to put Palin on the ticket is ultimately percieved as the product of unique insight and wisdom, or a desperate bid for campaign victory, will largely come into focus Thursday night. While many are already dismissing Palin based on her recent interview performance, I wouldn’t be so quick to write her off. The McCain campaign is sure to be working furiously to prepare her for this vital performance. It should also be noted that the setting of a debate appears to be more conducive to Palin than a regular television interview; by its very nature, Palin will have more opportunities to go on the offensive and rely on her penchant for razor-sharp barbs against Obama. Add to that the fact that Biden is likely to tread lightly to avoid the appearance of sexism, and the odds against Palin seem to diminish. If she can avoid being caught off-guard by an important question - and inadvertently channel the ghost of Admiral Stockdale in the process - she just might be alright. If not, it will take an act of God to get John McCain into the White House.
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